"There are about 37 ways to be an effective leader of which charisma is is one." — Dr. Jared Diamond
Dr. Jared Diamond, on the episode
Jared Diamond spent 36 years as a UCLA physiologist before building second and third careers in ornithology and history, and in his nineties he turned that same method, comparing matched natural experiments rather than writing another biography, on leadership itself. The pop idea of a great leader is a charismatic figure who commands a room. The operating system Diamond actually found, across politics, business, sports, and religion, is messier and more mathematical: outcomes are driven by a mix of the leader, the institution, and plain variance, and the people who look decisive are often just the ones who got lucky. He also turns the same clear-eyed analysis on his own life, applying a blunt filter to decide what's worth his time now that he's counting the years he has left. What follows pulls the parts of that conversation that are actual operating instructions, not just observations about famous men.
Tactic 01
Dr. Jared Diamond, Huberman Lab
Don't Fire The Coach Off One Bad Season
The play
Before firing a leader over one bad cycle, check two or three cycles of data, since roughly 70% of the outcome is random noise, not the leader.
Dr. Jared Diamond says
I've seen the analysis of variance research on coaches and CEOs, and only about 30% of success is actually down to the leader. The rest is players, institution, or industry, which is why a new hire usually looks better after a firing for reasons that have nothing to do with skill. It's the same mechanics as blaming someone for rolling a bad number on a dice throw.
Try this
Check multiple cycles of data before blaming a leader for one bad outcome, since most of the variance is random.
