You Can't Predict the Market. You Can Know Where You Are.
Howard's core position: he doesn't know where the market is going. Nobody does. What he can assess is where the market sits right now on the cycle. And that tells him what the risk/reward looks like from here. The pendulum always swings from too optimistic to too pessimistic and back again. You don't need to predict when it turns. You need to know which extreme you're closer to. 'When risk is being ignored and prices are built on optimism, the odds are against you. That's not a prediction. That's a statement about where we are.'
The play
Stop trying to predict where the market goes. Start trying to diagnose where you are. Are people around you acting fearful or greedy? Are assets priced for perfection or for failure? Is leverage in the system increasing or contracting? Is lending getting easier or harder? These inputs tell you the current risk/reward without requiring you to call a top or a bottom.